Well, here's the way I predict it.

It's been a relatively good year for rains in the Pacific Northwest, where most of the grass seed we get comes from, which should mean a bountiful crop.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_wytdprecpctnormal_update.pdf

https://grasslandrenewal.org/2022/07/15/july-2022-seed-crop-update/

So theoretically, prices of grass seed should come down next year and shortages should be mostly alleviated.

That said, I personally think that businesses that sell grass seed will get addicted to selling grass seed at higher prices, since it means more profit for them.

So your guess is as good as mine on the price of seed for 2023.

 

Labor costs are still high. I don't see prices coming down. Whether they go up further is the real question in my mind. Hopefully not, but wouldn't be surprised if they did.

 

The prices will not go down. And if they do it will be by very little. It's not just yield amounts that determine prices. Labor, gas, transport and energy prices plays a massive roll. And I don't think these will be solved by 2023.

 

Across the board, prices on few things will go down. Many will continue to climb.

Supply & demand have risen prices on many things but inflation and higher operating cost are sustaining the higher prices. In general, what we are faced with now are the "new" normal prices of things.

Energy and labor are a big influence for consumer pricing. Energy cost will continue to rise over time. Labor may flatline or possibly curtail slightly. My area experienced a 38% increase in electric rate on 06/01/22…it will only continue to rise.

As a business owner, both the fixed and variable operation expenses have exploded over 2021 & 2022. Then there's taxes… the govt has spent obscene money over the past 3 years. Building back better is expensive.

I wouldn't be surprised if grass seed isn't up further next year.

 

The way the Fed & the market's going, I think deflation and tight money will be the theme for 2023. So I could see prices stable or lower.

 

A good recession will fix a lot of things.

Labor costs are still high. I don't see prices coming down. Whether they go up further is the real question in my mind. Hopefully not, but wouldn't be surprised if they did.

 

Agree 100% on this. A good reset button to put companies in place that have been bending folks over a barrel since covid and beyond should fix issues. Just getting anyone to pick up a phone to basically hand them business or get a job done is mind blowing. The “take it or leave it” mentality and picking and choosing what you feel like doing needs a reality check. If a kick in the teeth recession happens, won’t be a bad thing

 

There's little that will be fixed with a recession and a whole lot of things will get worse. It will be a net negative result.

 

If your grass seed supplier isn't lowering prices this season get a new dealer, or be certain to verify testing dates. The only reason to have equal or higher pricing this season is to equate for left over inventory from last seasons high prices. The raw material has seen an increase in supply, demands remain the same, therefore the price should be down. Fuel and shipping costs have remained rather elevated, but have definitely not increased. I am a grass seed dealer located in Illinois. Reach out if you have any questions!

 

This is essentially what Pete from GCI said in his video yesterday regarding his 50 lb Ryegrass seed bags. He anticipates prices decreasing for that seed product this year, so is going to start decreasing prices on his current inventory now due to warehousing reasons. He's a standup guy.

Thanks for posting. It's good to hear it from someone in the middle of it.

 

If you think prices are dropping, take a peek at Home despot prices.....fert---is outrageous.
that store has become ridiculous.....seriously

im glad I got my stash...........

 

I spoke with United Seed last week, they said prices are coming down. Didnt say how much, but they are going to release new lower proces soon.

 

Great news!

 

When would be a good time to order seed for a fall renovation?

 

April to June if your seed type(s) are in high demand.

 

I just bought 50lb of TTTF that included Nightcrawler, Rhizing Star, Foxhound, Palomar, Crossfire 4 for $94.99 plus tax. Of course it’s coated seed which seems hard to find anything uncoated these days.

 

Source?

 

I went with United Seeds last year, worked great. Only bought 10#, had a sell by date of 05-01-2023. It was ~$65. My problem is deciding how much to tackle for the renovation this year. I don't need 50#, which is $247.50 right now, as I will only do the front yard, and maybe the side yard, about 1200-2000 sq ft. The seed should last thru the next year though, as i want enough if things don't go right.

 

The problem for me is our income no longer supports the higher prices of everything. Glad I over seeded last year when I had a little xtra funds for such things. Heck even pasta is up 50% !
Seems like peanuts but at a min of 2x a week in pasta. Thats $60 more a year we have to pull from somewhere else.
Oil tank just filled $900 vs $500 not long ago. Now toss in a job change and a hit in pay. My lawn will be the first cut in the budget.

 

Hang in there and just keep doing what you can.

Water if possible if not hand pick the weeds and buy a small bag of seeds and just throw it down in the area where you pulled up weeds.

 

Crops are looking very rough in the willamette valley this year. Maybe some of the worst I’ve ever seen this late. The terrible dry fall right into cold conditions have left the new plantings of perennial ryegrass a disaster. Established fescue could be 30 or more percent off of normal . Many acres have already been sprayed out or gonna be sprayed out. The cold snap we are having now is not helping the issue. There is no doubt the willamette valley will short.

 

I was told that TTTF seed was going to drop .04 a lb? And would be months to a year before we the end buyer see the price drop..

So I when a head stocked up on ARTIMUSS tttf seed for fall now.. Would much rather have in hand than without when fall rolls around even if it cost more I'm prepared and not searching.

 

I think that looks like a wise move. If movement is decent this spring and crops come in low like we think I see prices potentially. Still some unknowns here but fescue acres are still being sprayed out across the valley as we speak.

 

Yikes! I just checked seed prices from Preferred Seed, and they have 50# bag of 4th Millennium at $291 and they don't even carry Traverse2 anymore (I'm running a 50/50 blend).

Is that insane or is it just too early in the year? I need to look up what I paid for it in 2021...

 

Yes it is going up like everything else. I heard bad weather and environmental issues hit the industry hard in 2021 and we are still recovering. I haven’t kept up with current events to know if yields are back up.

4th Millennium is $242.50 w/free shipping at unitedseeds.

 

Bit of a sidetrack, but what about the price of a quart of oil, it's tune up time of year, over 7$ a qt. at the dollar place, 50$ gone , ouch

 

FWIW...Site One prices for Tall Fescue Select product are down about 1/3 this year if memory serves. Guy I spoke to said crop was quite good this year compared to last and prices reflect as such.

 

I also saw seed prices drop back down at my local Southern States. Compared to my previous post, the same 4th Millennial seed is down to $210 from $242.50 (~ -13.4%).

 

$85 a bag for blue tag premium mvs blend